2026年2月

Fukushima Economics Workshop 2025のお知らせ（2026/2/3）

荒 知宏准教授からのお知らせです。

下記のとおり、近代経済セミナーとの共催で、「Fukushima Economics Workshop 2025」を実施いたします。事前の参加申込みは不要ですので、興味のあるセッションに自由にお越しください。詳しいプログラム内容は以下の通りです（プログラムでは、報告者の敬称を省略させていただいております）。なお、研究報告はすべて英語で行われます。

日時：2026年2月21日（土）　12:45-17:30
場所：経済経営学類棟（キャンパスマップの５の建物）６階609合同研究室

12:45-13:00　

Opening Remarks

13:00−13:45

Haruka Takayama (University at Albany, State University of New York)

"Air Connectivity and International Travel: Evidence from Cross-border Card Payments"

(with Chun-Yu Ho, Tingting Peng, and Li Xu)

Abstract: Many countries seek to attract foreign travelers by improving air connectivity. How do direct flight connections affect international visitors' spending? We address this question using a novel dataset on card payments made by Chinese travelers via point-of-sale (POS) terminals. Our identification strategy exploits overseas improvements in air transportation capacityーarising from infrastructure developments, policy changes, and historical eventsーwhich we treat as exogenous supply shocks to flight frequency. Our IV estimates indicate that a 1% increase in the weekly frequency of direct flights leads to a 1.2% increase in cross-border card transaction value. While improving air connectivity promotes international travel, we find that negative shocks to consumer preferences for destination countries, such as boycotts, diminish the positive impact of air connectivity.

13:45−14:30

Motoaki Takahashi (Osaka University)

“Trade and the Spatial Distribution of Unemployment”

Abstract: I develop a model of involuntary unemployment in multiple geographic locations. The model merges a quantitative general equilibrium model of the spatial economy and the efficiency-wage model (Shapiro and Stiglitz, 1984). I quantify the model for 27 countries and the 50 US states and compute a counterfactual of a 3 percent increase in China’s productivity. The model predicts that real wages increase in all the US states, unemployment increases in 44 states, and the overall US welfare increases. Counterfactual results highlight heterogeneous effects of foreign shocks on unemployment and real wages across the US states.

14:30−14:45

Break

14:45−15:30

Hirofumi Okoshi (Okayama University)

“Reallocating Taxing Rights and Online Trade: Pillar One as a partial formula apportionment”

(with Hiroshi Mukunoki and Dirk Schindler)

Abstract: To target the problem of “homeless profits” that digital firms earn in countries without a physical presence, the Pillar One proposal by the OECD aims to reallocate taxing rights to market countries based on the sales revenues of in-scope firms. This study theoretically investigates the implications of Pillar One by considering a global firm that conducts all its real activities in a tax haven and competes via prices in e-commerce with local firms in market countries. Our model identifies two core effects. First, all in-scope firms manipulate their routine profit threshold by increasing their total turnover. This reduces the newly reallocated tax base and crowds out the taxable profits of the local competitors. Second, when corporate tax rates differ across market countries, there is an incentive toward sales shifting, whereby the global firm increases prices in the high-tax country and books larger sales and taxable profits in the low-tax country. Thus, the high-tax country suffers from lower tax revenue and greater market inefficiency, all else being equal.

15:30−16:15

Tomohiro Ara (Fukushima University)

“Two-Way Complementarity: Measurements and Welfare Implications”

(with Tengyu Zhao)

Abstract: Firms’ export and import participation are strongly correlated, a pattern known as two-way complementarity. In this paper, we refine its concept, develop empirical measures, identify its micro-foundations, and explore associated welfare implications. We show that two-way complementarity arises naturally from the structure of trade costs and derive an ACR-style formula for gains from trade that explicitly incorporates this channel. Two-way complementarity raises aggregate trade elasticities, implying smaller inferred welfare gains for a given decline in domestic trade shares following a trade reform. Using Chinese micro data, we document empirical support for the model predictions and find that failing to account for two-way complementarity overstates China’s gains from WTO accession by around 40%.

16:15−16:30

Break

16:30−17:15

Laixun Zhao (Kobe University)

“Seizing Policy Opportunities: How Confucian Culture Promotes Firm Exports”
(with Tong Fu)

Abstract: Employing geographic information of Confucianism heritages in China and using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, we find that Confucian culture (CC) causally promotes firm-level exports, by inducing firms to take advantage of the government's export tax rebate. We also show that CC has no promotional effect on domestic sales and other tax support outside the policy. These findings imply that CC could help firms benefit by seizing policy opportunities.

17:15-17:30　Concluding Remarks

※本ワークショップはJSPS科研費23K01395、24K00255の助成を受けています。